Note: I have re-edited this post on March 20, correcting some mistakes in the original publication.
In a recent article in the Atlantic (March 17, 2026), Anne Applebaum wrote:
“Donald Trump does not think strategically. Nor does he think historically, geographically, or even rationally. He does not connect actions he takes on one day to events that occur weeks later. He does not think about how his behavior in one place will change the behavior of other people in other places.
He does not consider the wider implications of his decisions. He does not take responsibility when these decisions go wrong. Instead, he acts on whim and impulse, and when he changes his mind—when he feels new whims and new impulses—he simply lies about whatever he said or did before.”
Strong words but very true. All those who are trying to discover a rational strategy behind Trump’s words and actions, who are trying to figure out how Trump thinks, are wasting their time. Trump simply does not think, ever. He acts and reacts from his gut, not his brain. Trump does not follow any recognized rational thought process.
From the age of four on my boys knew, instinctively, that words and actions have consequences. They knew that if you took your friend’s toy, he might not be your friend anymore. Why in God’s name doesn’t Trump understand, that if you insult and belittle you friends and allies, who all came to your defense when you were attacked on 9/11, if you slap whimsical tariffs on their exports, if you muse about making Canada the 51st state, if you threaten to take part of Denmark’s sovereign territory by force, if you shower the leaders and governments of your friends an allies with insults, and you double the tariffs unilaterally if they are not subservient enough in their conversations with you, your friends may not be very eager to come to your help when you need it.
Being able to foresee the consequences of one’s words and actions is one of the most basic cornerstones of intelligence. Trump is woefully short in that department and the leaders of Europe and especially the NATO countries have finally figured that out. They have learned that their attempts at appeasement vis-à-vis Trump are all for naught. I am in fact heartened by the fact that they all refused to participate when Trump called for their help opening the Strait of Hormuz. But more astonishing is the fact that Trump even asked.
Intelligence is, at least partially, an acquired trait. It looks like nobody ever taught Trump the thought processes that form the basis of intelligence. All his life he has been shielded from the consequences of his actions. Even now the one institution that should hold him to account, the US congress is stacked with toadies outdoing themselves with shows of fealty to him. The Republicans in Congress do understand that words and actions have consequences. They know very well that if they would adhere to their oath of office and act as a check on the executive overreaches of Trump, they would suffer the consequence of having to face a more loyal opponent in their primary to re-election.
The ability to assemble facts and draw conclusions is called inference and is one key ingredient of human intelligence. It is a feature, that the developers of artificial intelligence have great difficulty integrating into their AI systems. And in Trump’s thought processes it seems to be totally absent. He reaches a “conclusion” based on his whims and instincts and then goes back looking for facts that might support his views. And if he cannot find any such facts he comes up with, what Kellyanne Conway famously called, “alternative facts”. There are no such things as “alternative facts”; in common parlance these are called lies.
Unchecked by any higher authority (e.g. Congress, the Supreme Court and ultimately the voters), incapable of inference in his thoughts and unbridled by any standards of truth and honesty, Trump reigns supreme. But Trump, despite being incapable of thinking intelligently and prone to act on whims and instincts, is also President of the United States. He controls the most lethal and professional army in the World and has his finger on the proverbial “button”. He, and all of us with him, have been lucky so far (see Venezuela). But I fear that in Iran his luck may be running out.
I hope you sleep well tonight.
Only someone who has never truly had to face the consequences of their actions—or who has been able to bury them under a “surplus” of wealth—could act the way DT does. On top of that, this experience has made him arrogant, conceited, and ignorant. The fact that people like this repeatedly rise to the top of important organizations and nations in democratic systems gives me serious cause for concern. The only thing that helps me is the hope that, thanks to their own stupidity, they will “eliminate” themselves. And to all those who suffer greatly as a result—or even have to die—I offer my deepest sympathy.