Since World War II the Americans have won every military battle but lost all the wars. Just think of Vietnam, Iraq and now Iran. The most formidable military force in the World, equipped with the most powerful weapons has not achieved unquestioned victory in any of its’ wars since the capitulations of Germany and Japan which ended the second World War.

In my post last month (“When Personal Animosity Leads to War”, May 2, 2026) I noted that the best outcome Trump could now hope in his war with Iran for was a deal similar to the Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA) which was negotiated under Obama and which was also signed by Russia, China, Germany, France and the EU. This deal Trump cancelled during his first administration, calling it the “worst deal ever”. What he now seems eager to sign as soon as possible falls significantly short of the JCPOA. It could be described as “JCPOA Light”, i.e. JCPOA minus the international community supporting the American effort and minus the monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) enhanced by a massive cash transfer fron the US to Iran.

The exact details of the deal are not known yet. But the big items seem to be a re-opening of the strait of Hormuz, a lifting of sanctions on Iran and the release of about USD 300 billion in funds to Iran. Trump has not achieved a single one of the goals he set out when he went to war. There was no “complete surrender”. The regime is still in charge. Most importantly, Iran still holds a considerable amount of enriched Uranium which it was able to produce after Trump cancelled the JCPOA. According to the IAEA as well as the CIA, Iran did not have any significant amount of highly enriched Uranium when Trump took office. It was the cancellation of the JCPOA, and the subsequent departure of the IAEA inspectors, that enabled Iran to start enriching Uranium to near weapons grade.

Trump proclaimed that the Strait of Hormuz will be re-opened. But that decision is not up to him. Iran can close the strait of Hormuz again at any time. Furthermore, Iran’s Gulf state neighbors have been made to understand that they should not align themselves to closely with the US or their oil infrastructure will be at risk. And finally, Iran makes no concessions with respect to its’ support for Hezbollah and other proxies in the region. This support can now be funded more easily thanks to the money Iran will receive from the US and the oil revenue it can generate, after sanctions are lifted.

On the other hand, the US is left diminished, its’ stock of sophisticated weapons dangerously low and its’ reputation in tatters. Trump has wasted hundreds of Billions of Dollars on a war effort that has yielded exactly …. nothing.

Of course, Trump will try to spin this as a victory. But if this is victory, I would like to know what defeat looks like.