“Trump Always Chickens Out” has been a meme for some time. His habit of making broad threats only to back out before they result in any meaningful action (e.g. tariffs) is by now known to any and all. He did it again last Tuesday. First he boasted he would wipe out the Iranian civilization, only to back down hours before his ultimatum was set to expire.

The World is glad he acted as was predicted by those who have followed his twists and turn on the international stage. Trump claimed he had achieved a great victory and that he relented because the Iranians were begging him for a deal. He stated that the US military stood ready for the next “Conquest”, whether that be Greenland or Cuba. It was a posture reminiscent of Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” rally 23 years ago abord the aircraft carrier US Abraham Lincoln, and it is at least as premature.

Trump has claimed at least four goals he would achieve with his war against Iran;

1. preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon;
2. eliminating its ballistic-missile capabilities;
3. laying the ground for a popular overthrow of the regime;
4. eradicating Iranian proxies in the Persian Gulf.

During the war he was forced to add a 5^th goal:

5. (Re-)open the strait of Hormuz.

None of these have been met. Iran still holds on to around 400 kg of highly enriched Uranium, it has lost only about one third of its missile capabilities, the regime is in firmer control than it was prior to the war, and Iran’s proxies may have been weakened, but certainly not eradicated. As a condition of the current cease-fire Trump demanded the opening of the strait of Hormuz. It is technically “open” but under the firm control of the Iranian military, which determines which ships can pass at what price. If this is a victory for the US, I would like to know what defeat looks like.

Which ever way I look at this, the Iranian regime clearly better off than before the war. They have lost some of their leaders, but their system was always a collective one. individuals are dispensable, the collective survives. And they have realized that they don’t need any nuclear weapons. They have an economic weapon, control over the strait of Hormuz, which is much cheaper to deploy and more effective. They can even charge fees for the passage which will enable them to fill their coffers to continue supporting their proxies throughout the region.

In the upcoming negotiations they are in the enviable position where they can yield on the points the Americans are most fixated on, nuclear weapons, while holding firm on their claim concerning the strait of Hormuz. This will hand them a much more effective, an ultimately more powerful weapon of deterrence toward not only the US but the entire World.