I don’t understand the focus on Western security guarantees as part of a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. If you think the US would honor such a guarantee, should Putin decide he wanted to take over the rest of Ukraine, you are pathetically naïve. And left alone, Europe would be too weak to respond,
The US started over ten years ago to withdraw from Europe. The US Congress had to add a clause to the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, prohibiting the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Europe below 76,000 personnel, to slow this process somewhat. The clause setting a lower limit for US troops in Europe was added specifically to counter Trump’s plans to reduce US troops in Romania and other NATO countries to virtually nothing.
Trump has never made a secret of his desire to cut the US lose from Europe and NATO. He has publicly stated that he would let Putin to do whatever the hell he wanted to any NATO country that, in Trumps’s opinion, wasn’t spending enough on its own defense and thus not contributing enough to NATO’s common cause. The U.S. National Security Strategy, released in November 2025 and signed by President Trump was insultingly disdainful of Europe.
Against this backdrop it is downright stupid to believe the US, especially under Trump or another MAGA clown that could succeed him, would come to the aid of Ukraine if it was attacked. And Putin is not stupid. He knows full well, that any security “guarantee” in a peace deal, if one ever were to be struck, isn’t worth the paper it is written on.
The only meaningful way to provide security for Ukraine is to supply it with the means necessary to defend itself. That includes long distance munitions, so that Ukraine can target the drone factories in Russia’s “Hinterland”. This policy does not require a “peace deal” or some other sort of agreement by the Kremlin. It should be done right now and without asking permission from Putin, as Trumps has done the last time supplying long range weapons to Ukraine was discussed.
Let’s stop being stupid and become effective!
Lieber Daniel, endlich komme ich dazu, Deine Beiträge in Ruhe zu lesen, auch vor dem geistigen Auge einer möglichen Leserschaft, die ebenfalls interessiert sein könnte – sowie Vermarktbarkeit….very thoughtprovoking, very high level sophisticated thought process….mixture of applied science, experienced geostratetic thinking, profound knowledge of intercultural conduct…. in any case….from my persective economist/FT editorial writing level….particularly valuable for it`s independency…..maybe a version of future journalism that is being paid for due to trusted integrity and independence…..just finished your interpretation about nuclear war…..you are right…Trump = just simply not knowing what he is doing…..Joe Blow Verblendung…..Are we in a new age – after clash of civilisations – cultures – clash of economic models…western liberal democracy against oligarchic anarchocapitalism…., nationalism? More to follow….keep writing….Max Frisch – wie weiss ich wer ich nicht bin, wenn ich nicht schreibe – ich werde mir Gedanken mach, along the lines discussed – how to position and possibly market your work….alles Beste und gute Reise – Carolyn hat zu Weihnachten geschrieben, was mich besonders freute…..