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I have refrained from commenting on the war in the Middle East. For one, there is so much commentary floating around, some informed, some uninformed, some speculative and some just cheap propaganda, that I felt no need to add my two cents worth. But mainly because, unlike many of the other commentators, I am keenly aware of the fact that I am confused. How can I comment on events when I have no idea what is going on, what the actors might think or what their strategy might be.<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, let me take a crack at it:<\/p>\n
The Iranian side is simple to figure out. The regime which has allowed a religiously stained corrupt minority to exert control for 47 years simply wants to stay in power. To this end, the Mullahs are willing to go to any length, including sacrificing large numbers of Iranians as the reaction to numerous street protests has shown. The latest economic protests from December 2025 to January 2026 were suppressed by massacring tens of thousands of protesters. It is therefore no surprise that Iranians who want change are afraid to go out on the streets to show their displeasure with the regime and the economic mess that regime has created.<\/p>\n
Today the only picture of demonstrations in Teheran and other Iranian cities are of pro-government rallies. Watching some of these videos I was struck not only by the fervor of the government supporters but also by their age. Most of them are clearly younger than 50 years. They have never known freedom, the first words they learned as children were not about Mama or Daddy, they were “Death to America.” The were raised in an ideology of hatred against Israel and the West. And they seem willing to do whatever It takes and suffer whatever is necessary to support their leader.<\/p>\n
The idea that the majority of Iranians long for freedom and a connection to the West is a dangerous illusion. The unprovoked attack by the US and Israel ha probably strengthened the hand of the regime. In the eyes of the Iranians their leaders who warned them of the devil alliance of the US and Isreal were right after all.<\/p>\n
The US has been fixated on the possibility of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon. Regardless of whether this is the case (remember the weapons of mass destruction used as a pretext for attacking Iraq) it is used time and again to rally the chronically ill-informed American public.<\/p>\n
Information on where Iran stands in its’ effort to construct a nuclear bomb today is contradictory. Since Trump trashed the nuclear deal, that allowed some insight into what Iran was doing with its’ nuclear program, the West has been blind in this respect. Instead of information and data collected by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), we have to rely on suppositions and speculations based on very little hard data.<\/p>\n
Much of the information comes from Israel’s Mossad which has a very good reputation, despite the fact that it failed to foresee the October 7 attack by Hamas. It also has a clear political role serving Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu certainly used information gathered by Mossad selectively to convince Trump to go along with a war the majority of Americans disapprove off.<\/p>\n
Iran has always insisted that its’ nuclear program is peaceful. In fact, the elder Khameni issued a fatwa in the mid1990s banning nuclear weapons. In October 2003, during speeches following the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Khamenei stated that weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons, were forbidden (haram) under Islam. In August 2005, Iran officially cited the fatwa at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna. The Iranian government stated that \u201cthe production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam,\u201d attributing this ruling to Khamenei.<\/p>\n
In my opinion, citing the possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons as casus belli is very weak. Under the nuclear deal negotiated during the Obama administration we had at least some insight into whether Iran was abiding by the fatwa. Trump cancelled that deal and decided to undertake an unprovoked war against Iran instead, killing the leader who had issued the fatwa against nuclear weapons in the first hours of this war. It is now doubtful whether the fatwa still stands. The hardliners in the Iranian regime have certainly profited from this attack. They must enjoy saying: told you so.<\/p>\n
Now consider the chances of success. Unlike the Americans, the Iranians have prepared for this war for decades. They have buried their arsenal, decentralized command and control, indoctrinated a large portion of their population and suppressed any form of possible internal opposition. Trumps pronouncements during the recent unrest in Iran have made it easy for the Iranian regime to paint any form of opposition as doing the bidding of a sworn enemy.<\/p>\n
As a result Iran has transformed its’ various armed forces into one large guerilla organization. Anybody who knows how wars are fought will be quick to tell you that this type of an enemy cannot be overcome with a conventional armed force (see Vietnam, for example). The professionals in the Pentagon, those that the “Secretary of War” has not fired yet, certainly pointed this out to the gung-ho amateurs in the top positions. Trump decided to go to war anyway, and now seems to want to give up, without having achieved any of his aims. Especially his failure to break the stranglehold Iran has in the World’s energy supplies by its bility to block the Straight of Hormuz is a teribe failure. If Trump gives up now and walks away, to concentrate on Cuba, while the straight of Hormuz remains effectively closed, he leaves the US and the World considerably worse off than it was before the war began.<\/p>\n
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